It is hard to imagine just how radical the change in fortunes for the world’s major commercial aerospace manufacturers has been in the last few years. Just ten years ago the smart money in aerospace pointed to the defense sector as the best source of future profitability. But just as this was reaching a peak, the full impact of a near meltdown in global financial markets brought home to Western governments that defense budgets couldn’t just keep on expanding and a new era of military program cuts began.
The turning point came as this decade opened with a whole new generation of commercial aircraft programs, powered by new, even more fuel-efficient engines. The 15-20% improvements in fuel efficiency, combined with other cost reductions relating to higher reliability, meant that the bottom-line benefit for airlines was too great to ignore.
Another major factor in airline growth has been the rapid expansion of low-cost airlines where new operators could start up business offering passengers cut-price fares and the latest aircraft. It was a winning combination that was to shake up the civil air transport industry. The outcome has been a surge in new orders on a scale that has never been seen before, with sales backlogs and deliveries stretching ahead for seven or eight years.
That 70s Show Up
By introducing advanced features, such as fly-by-wire flight controls, sidestick controllers, automatic flight envelope protection, two-crew operation, and glass cockpits, Airbus’s fortunes finally took off in the 1980s and the 1000th delivery was achieved in 1993. By 2007, deliveries had risen to 5000. In March 2015, the 9000th Airbus was delivered. In the meantime the sales backlog had risen to 6300 aircraft and the company was increasing production of its best-selling A320 family toward a monthly output of 50 aircraft.
Continuous product improvement has been the key to Airbus’s market success. The A300 and A310 established a modular wide-body product line that featured a common fuselage width and cockpit and grew to include the more technically advanced A330 and A340. This pair offered a near-identical airframe and wing but with the option of either two or four engines. The enormous increase in engine reliability and added fuel economy saw the four-engine A340 dropped in favor of improved versions of the A330.
It was originally planned that the A350XWB, with its advanced wing and featuring a higher content of composite materials, would replace the A330, but demand from existing customers with large A330 fleets encouraged Airbus to revamp the design, and with the new Trent engines the A330neo is proving to be very popular as its performance will keep it highly competitive well into the next decade. That does not seem to have had any significant negative impact on A350XWB sales, however, and this latest Airbus entered airline service late in 2014.
Production of the A350XWB is ramping up toward 10 each month to help reduce the backlog of over 800 aircraft yet to be delivered. Using five development aircraft, the A350XWB program has been a smooth one for Airbus, with only minor delays regarding entry into services. The schedule called for this to take place in 2014 and it was achieved.
The smaller A319 and larger A321 cater to varying customer range and payload requirements, allowing an optimized solution for their service route needs with high operational commonality across the family.
The new A320neo models feature a choice of the latest generation CFM LEAP 1A or P&W Pure Power engines and numerous other changes and improvements. Compared to the earlier A320s, the neo models offer a 20% saving in fuel burn per seat, lower noise and emissions levels, double the payload and an additional 500-nmi range improvement. Wingtip-mounted composite “sharklets” improve fuel consumption per passenger by up to 4%, and can be retrofitted to existing A320s as well as featured on new deliveries and neo models.
The first PW1100G-powered development A320neo aircraft flew in September 2014 and the first LEAP-1A-powered A320neo just had its first flight this past May, yet already total sales have reached over 3620 from 60 customers and first deliveries are expected before the end of this year. Airbus has said it will raise monthly production to 50 by 2017 and may even take this up to 60 if demand continues at present levels.
Sales Go Up, Up, and Away
Typically the A380 can carry 544 passengers in a four-class layout (first, business, premium economy, and economy) but in an all-economy high-density layout it can carry up to 853 passengers. The ultra-spacious cabin interior allows airlines to offer passengers more internal volume than any other commercial jet and this can include lounge and bar areas, wider economy seats, and specialized first class luxury facilities, including individual cabins and even bedroom suites.
With a range of up to 8200 nmi, for long-haul passengers the comfort of the A380 has created a loyal following. The large capacity has also brought down the operating costs per seat-mile so that where traffic levels can justify such a big aircraft, the A380 can be a generous profit-maker for its operators. With built-in provision for a future capacity stretch, the A380 is well placed for the day when global air traffic will demand more ultra-large jets to avoid saturation of airport facilities and air corridors. In this respect it is still ahead of its time.
The Max brings a 20% reduction in fuel cost per seat and 40% noise footprint reduction. Revised aerodynamics, with an extended tail cone and thickened rear fuselage plus new winglets, have reduced drag and together with the new engines and cockpit (which still retains much commonality with Next Gen 737s) offer yet another worthwhile upgrade to an aircraft that first emerged from the Boeing works in the 1960s. The rebirth success of this aircraft is astonishing. The latest 737 Max seems set to take production well into the second 50 years of its history, making it the best-selling commercial jet ever.
The 777-X will be powered by new GE9X engines and will feature an all-new longer wing design with greatly enhanced aerodynamics and raked outer sections that can be folded on the ground to allow compatibility with existing airport stand facilities. It will be the largest twin engine jetliner in service and Emirates Airlines showed its confidence in the new aircraft with an order for 150.
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The one unknown issue is whether the company will decide to add another new model in the 200-250 seat category to replace outgoing 757s and 767s. The global market and business case for an all-new program is far from clear, though the company will be watching Airbus closely to see if significant airline interest emerges for the long-range A321, which might become a default 757 replacement if there is no rival Boeing product.